Abiy Ahmed appears to have significantly underestimated the war. He says those who warned him that he would not be able to end the war or defeat the Tigrayan forces were wrong, claiming that he achieved victory at a much lower human cost than that incurred during the Ethio-Eritrean War of 1998–2000. He says these warnings were based on the TPLF’s ability to wage guerrilla warfare, which he characterizes as a form of fighting typically employed by “bandits.” However, he says he was confident that he could prevail because of the number of troops and the amount of armaments at his disposal. Events would later prove him wrong: the number of soldiers and the quantity of armaments at his disposal did not prevent his forces from being routed by the TDF in June 2021.

He even boasts that the original plan, designed by General Birhanu Jula, was to finish the war within two weeks, but says he deliberately extended it by another week for political, military, diplomatic, and other reasons.

Abiy Ahmed says he traveled to Eritrea as soon as the war began to help plan the war. He says that, after witnessing the soldiers’ morale and preparedness, the operational plan to attack Tigray from all directions was developed in consultation with Chief of Staff General Birhanu Jula. This makes Abiy the first leader in Ethiopian history to invade his own country alongside another country considered an arch-enemy of Ethiopia.

The pathological liar Abiy Ahmed claims that Tigrayan forces were estimated to number more than 80,000. The fact is that Tigray had fewer than 6,000 regional special forces—5,800, to be precise. There is no way Abiy Ahmed could have declared victory in just three weeks if Tigray had actually had 80,000 soldiers. He also falsely claims that not a single rocket was fired at any Tigrayan city or town until his forces captured Mekelle, and that no city or town was damaged as a result. He adds that rockets were fired only after TPLF leaders had left Mekelle. In reality, Tigrayan cities, towns, and villages—including the regional capital, Mekelle—were shelled by joint Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and Eritrean forces. Although TPLF leaders had left Mekelle and retreated to the mountains to prevent the city from being destroyed, Ethiopian forces advanced into the city under heavy shelling, which killed nearly 30 civilians.

Abiy Ahmed, who oversaw the destruction of much of Tigray’s economic infrastructure alongside Eritrean forces, conditioned Tigray’s development on the Tigrayan people’s assistance in capturing TPLF leaders.

Finally, Abiy Ahmed, believing that the war was over, told his military generals not to boast about the victory they had achieved in Tigray.